{"id":941,"date":"2022-06-09T11:59:04","date_gmt":"2022-06-09T11:59:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/citywatch.ng\/the-nigerian-state-is-the-greatest-threat-to-nigerian-democracy-council-on-foreign-relations\/"},"modified":"2022-06-09T11:59:04","modified_gmt":"2022-06-09T11:59:04","slug":"the-nigerian-state-is-the-greatest-threat-to-nigerian-democracy-council-on-foreign-relations","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/citywatch.ng\/?p=941","title":{"rendered":"The Nigerian State Is the Greatest Threat to Nigerian Democracy – Council on Foreign Relations"},"content":{"rendered":"

Climate Change <\/a>
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Will there be an election in Nigeria next year? If so, what kind of election will it be, and how will its outcome affect the country\u2019s long term stability?
As political activity across the country heightens in the approach to party presidential primaries at the end of May, these and ancillary questions are being asked by observers who worry that the election is in danger of becoming a sideshow to more urgent issues that pertain to the very survival of Nigeria as a country.
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Nigeria<\/a>
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Future of Democracy<\/a>
Key among these issues are rampant insecurity, especially widespread kidnapping; random outbreaks of violence; a spike in occurrence of ritual killings; and sporadic attacks by roving bandits, the latter concentrated in but by no means restricted to the northwestern and northcentral parts of the country. Last Sunday, forty-eight people were reported killed after \u201cdozens of gunmen on motorcycles\u201d stormed<\/a> three villages in the northwestern state of Zamfara, adding to the more than 5,000 slain across the Nigerian northwest since 2018. An estimated 915 and 571 people respectively were killed and kidnapped<\/a> in the country in January 2022 alone, even as a majority among the 168 people reportedly kidnapped in March after gunmen opened fire on and stormed a Kaduna-Abuja passenger train remain in the custody of their abductors.
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Shaken by the rising incidence of ritual killings across the country, the Nigerian House of Representatives in February implored<\/a> the federal government to declare a national emergency.\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0
Across the various levels of government, there is scant evidence that authorities have a handle on the problem. The passage of legislation by the Nigerian Senate last month outlawing payment of ransom to kidnappers was greeted with condemnation by groups across civil and political society who saw it as focusing on the symptom rather than the cause of the problem. The legislation, an amendment to the 2013 Terrorism (Prevention) Act, imposes<\/a> \u201cjail terms of at least fifteen years for paying a ransom to free someone who has been kidnapped\u2026\u201d
The proposal may seem wrongheaded, but at least the Senate bill tacitly acknowledges the seriousness of the menace of kidnapping in a country where an average of thirteen persons are said to be abducted daily.
For its part, the federal government has been beating its chest about the purchase of attack aircrafts and other military equipment worth $1 billion from the U.S. government. Whether this translates into strategic advantage in the long term remains to be seen. \u00a0\u00a0
More on:
Nigeria<\/a>
Violent Nonstate Actors<\/a>
Elections and Voting<\/a>
Sub-Saharan Africa<\/a>
Future of Democracy<\/a>
Insecurity is only one facet of the Nigerian crisis. Its education sector, once among the region\u2019s most robust, is in the doldrums. In February, university professors under the aegis of the Academic Staff Union of Nigerian Universities (ASUU) declared<\/a> a \u201ccomprehensive and total strike\u201d after failing to reach a compromise with the Nigerian Federal Government on, inter alia, conditions of service and a mutually agreeable payment platform. From 1999 to 2020, ASUU was on strike for a combined 1,450 days. This week, the union extended its ongoing strike for another twelve weeks. The monthly salary of the highest paid professor in a Nigerian public university is less than one thousand dollars.
The protracted crisis in the Nigerian education sector has prompted students to seek greener pastures outside the country. More than 100,000 Nigerian students travel abroad annually; over the past decade, the number of Nigerians studying in the U.S. has gone up by 93 percent. In the last two years, the number of Nigerian students entering the United Kingdom has jumped<\/a> by 415 percent.
Many Nigerians believe, not unreasonably, that the reason why the government has no stake in the preservation of the universities and has tended to respond to ASUU with a lethargy bordering on disdain is because children of the political elite and highly placed government functionaries do not go to them. In March, citing \u201cbreach of fundamental human rights,\u201d the House of Representatives voted down<\/a> a bill to stop public officers from sending their children to foreign schools without approval from the minister of education.
Good education is just one of the many reasons why more and more Nigerians are leaving the country. A staggering 73 percent of respondents to a 2021 Africa Polling Institute survey indicated<\/a> they were willing to relocate with their families if the opportunity arose. According to the same survey, the proportion of Nigerians \u201cwho believe that the future of Nigeria will be better than it is presently\u201d has decreased year on year.
The economy is a nagging concern. According to the World Bank, \u201cin 2018, 40 percent of Nigerians (83 million people) lived<\/a> below the poverty line, while another 25 percent (53 million) were vulnerable.\u201d Although COVID-19 did not help matters, Nigeria\u2019s economic crisis predates the pandemic, having more to do with its stubborn monoculturalism coupled with its incorrigible pursuit of unsound fiscal and monetary policies. With government borrowing\u2014whether to cover budget deficit or service existing debt\u2014continuing unabated, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects<\/a> that the country\u2019s total public debt will rise to 44.2 percent of its GDP by 2027.
The economic crisis has had a profound impact on the psyche of civil society. Thrown back on their own resources, ordinary citizens have meshed skullduggery with dubious spirituality. The sheer gruesomeness of many ritual killings as reported in the media signals total desperation amid a frightening descent into normlessness. \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0
The evident fragility of the system notwithstanding, the smart money must be on the election holding as scheduled. One reason is that there is no feasible alternative to a peaceful transfer of power via the ballot box. The idea of a multiparty transitional government, mooted in some quarters in recent times, has gained no traction. Another reason is that after several electoral cycles, Nigerians have gotten used to picking their leaders. They may have come to the realization that no single election will solve all their problems, but they also know that any credible solution must emerge from within the democratic process. \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0
Nigeria needs a president brave enough to take on the enormous crisis of the Nigerian state, lest it torpedoes Nigerian democracy.
Andres Villar assisted with the preparation of this post<\/em>.<\/em>
This publication is part of the Diamonstein-Spielvogel Project on the Future of Democracy<\/em><\/p>\n

source<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Climate Change Global Climate Agreements: Successes and Failures Backgrounder by Lindsay Maizland November 17, 2021 Renewing America Myanmar Myanmar\u2019s Troubled History Backgrounder by Lindsay Maizland January 31, 2022 Pharmaceuticals and Vaccines A Guide to Global COVID-19 Vaccine Efforts Backgrounder by Claire Felter April 1, 2022 Climate Change Reflecting Sunlight to Reduce Climate Risk Council Special […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":942,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jnews-multi-image_gallery":[],"jnews_single_post":[],"jnews_primary_category":[],"jnews_override_counter":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-941","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news"],"yoast_head":"\nThe Nigerian State Is the Greatest Threat to Nigerian Democracy - Council on Foreign Relations - City Watch<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/citywatch.ng\/?p=941\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Nigerian State Is the Greatest Threat to Nigerian Democracy - 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